TLT - （iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF）

Is China Winning? By Russell Clark, author of the Capital Flows and Asset Markets substack A preferred trade for the last few years has been long GLD/short TLT - it represents the trade off facing western central bankers. Either destroy the bond (and assets) market, or face inflationary pressure. I have been surprised at how well this trade has held up in the face of an oil price falling from USD 120 to USD 80. But the GLD/TLT trade also has a significant political element to it. When we look at the very long graph (replacing TLT with a long dated treasury index), we can see the spike in the late 1970s. The sell off in the 1970s, represented the failure of the US. Its currency was very weak, treasuries had lost significant value, the Vietnam war had been lost, and the preceding decade had seen three major leaders assassinated, JFK, Bobby Kennedy and MLK. Ronald Reagan survived an attempted assassination in 1981. As an old New Yorker told me, in 1970s it felt like the US was a failed state.

The post S&P 500 goes negative YTD; almost entire regional bank stocks halted due to volatility appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com . Quick Take Bitcoin extends its gain up 35% YTD, while S&P has gone into negative territory -0.19%. Both Nasdaq and TLT are up over 7% YTD. Chaos in bank stocks…

Hartnett: "The Next Great Bull Markets Starts After The Next Recession, When The Fed Is Forced To Bail Out The US" In his latest Flow Show note (available to pro subs here), BofA CIO and the most accurate Wall Street strategist of the past several years, Michael Hartnett, looks at the year anniversary of the Ukraine war and makes the following observations: "war = inflationary de-globalization theme = higher rates"; no surprise than that theme “winners” of the past year are: energy 29% (XLE), manufacturing re-shoring 21% (AIRR), defence/aerospace 14% (PPA), natural resources 14% (IGE), and the “losers ”: Bitcoin -39%, innovation -34% (ARKK), bonds -23% (TLT), oil dependency -19% (Taiwan/Korea). But while that anniversary will dominate the airwaves this weekend, traders will be quick to remind us that today is also the 2-year anniversary of the secular peak in China tech which as Hartnett writes was the "1st QE bubble to pop, HSTECH was 11k, now 4k, in classic post-bubble trading range.

US equity markets snapped back higher and away from pivotal levels as investors hope for a benign US January CPI print today. What is our trading focus? US equities (US500.I and USNAS100.I): the market is set up for good news S&P 500 futures rallied 1.2% yesterday ahead of today’s US January CPI report on no new news suggesting technical positioning, but also a dangerous risk-reward setup should inflation remain stronger than estimated. It could also be the market’s bet that the new CPI methodology will push the CPI figure below estimates adding to the ongoing rally. Switzerland’s January CPI report yesterday showed 0.6% m/m vs est. 0.5% m/m pushing the y/y inflation rate to 3.3% up from 2.8% in December. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HIG3) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) traded sideways In a choppy but uneventful morning session, Hang Seng Index bounced modestly to up 0.3%. Hong Kong developers recovered from yesterday’s sell-off and bounced 2%-3%. New World Development (00017:xhkg) gained 3%.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which we can informally refer to as TLT, has an unusual relation to bonds that investors need to understand. I am bearish on TLT shares because the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is about to make some important announcements tomorrow. Most likely, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is going to set a hawkish tone, which is bullish for bond yields but could cause price damage to TLT. TLT straddles the realms of stocks and bonds, as it''s an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that has characteristics of both asset classes.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which we can informally refer to as TLT, has an unusual relation to bonds that investors need to understand. I am bearish on TLT shares because the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is about to make some important announcements tomorrow. Most likely, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is going to set a hawkish tone, which is bullish for bond yields but could cause price damage to TLT. TLT straddles the realms of stocks and bonds, as it''s an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that has characteristics of both asset classes.

Institutions, Retail Investors Flood Back Into Stocks After Best Week In Months; Target FAAMG, Chinese Stocks Maybe they got tired with sitting on their hands (and the proverbial "sidelines") or have run out of stocks to sell (or short), but for whatever reason last week, when the S&P 500 soared +4.7%, its best week since June, both institutional and retail investors flooded back into the market at near record amounts. According to Bank of America''s weekly Equity Client Flow Trend report (available to pro subs ), clients were net buyers of US equities for the sixth straight week, with inflows into both stocks and ETFs. Buying was led by hedge fund clients; private clients were also buyers (for the fourth straight week). On the other end, institutional clients sold equities after buying for two weeks. Some more details: over the last three weeks, inflows into single stocks (as a % of S&P 500 mkt. cap) were in the 99th percentile of history since ’08 and two standard deviations above average , and still in the 92nd percentile excluding corp. client buybacks.

The Fed''s Strong Dollar Policy: A Recipe For Systemic Implosion Authored by Mathew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, From Main Street USA to the village corners and central banks of Europe, Japan and elsewhere, the Fed’s strong USD policy is backfiring—big time. Just ask the Brits… Having spent years creating the inflation (QE1 to unlimited QE, Repo bailouts, massive money supply expansion, and an historical wealth transfer from an inflated, Fed-driven stock market), the Fed will be cleaning up its own inflation mess on the backs of the U.S. working class and its other global “allies” while blaming the CPI inflation on Putin, Covid and climate change. How’s that for rigged to fail ? But that’s just the beginning, and it’s not just about the USA. Engineering a Recession Powell Can’t Control By raising rates into what we all know is a recession , Powell, who delusionaly pretends to be Volcker re-born, wants to solve the inflation he helped create by engineering a demand-crippling recession which he thinks he can control, but can’t and won’t.

This option trade will earn a full profit if yields fall or stay constant.

The US equity market dropped to new local lows and below key support in late trading after Fedex reported a massive miss on profits and dropped its year-ahead-forecast, citing a marked deterioration in activity over the last quarter. Elsewhere, the US dollar rose, USDCNH traded well above 7.00 and US yields remained pinned near the cycle highs after a strong weekly jobless claims report but tepid August Retail Sales data. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities tried to tread water during the cash session yesterday but spilled lower and below the key local support (3,900 area in S&P 500 and 12,000 area in the Nasdaq 100) in late trading after Fedex reported a huge profit miss and dropped its forward revenue forecast (more below). The break below support sets the market on tilt on the quarterly “witching” day for index futures and options today. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index fell 1% in early trading on a weakening Chinese Yuan, USDCNH surging to as high as 7.0350, but pared some losses to be down around half a per cent after the stronger than expected prints of China’s August industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment.

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which we can informally refer to as TLT, has an unusual relation to bonds that investors need to understand. I am bearish on TLT shares because the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is about to make some important announcements tomorrow. Most likely, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is going to set a hawkish tone, which is bullish for bond yields but could cause price damage to TLT. TLT straddles the realms of stocks and bonds, as it''s an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that has characteristics of both asset classes.

Institutions, Retail Investors Flood Back Into Stocks After Best Week In Months; Target FAAMG, Chinese Stocks Maybe they got tired with sitting on their hands (and the proverbial "sidelines") or have run out of stocks to sell (or short), but for whatever reason last week, when the S&P 500 soared +4.7%, its best week since June, both institutional and retail investors flooded back into the market at near record amounts. According to Bank of America''s weekly Equity Client Flow Trend report (available to pro subs ), clients were net buyers of US equities for the sixth straight week, with inflows into both stocks and ETFs. Buying was led by hedge fund clients; private clients were also buyers (for the fourth straight week). On the other end, institutional clients sold equities after buying for two weeks. Some more details: over the last three weeks, inflows into single stocks (as a % of S&P 500 mkt. cap) were in the 99th percentile of history since ’08 and two standard deviations above average , and still in the 92nd percentile excluding corp. client buybacks.

The Fed''s Strong Dollar Policy: A Recipe For Systemic Implosion Authored by Mathew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, From Main Street USA to the village corners and central banks of Europe, Japan and elsewhere, the Fed’s strong USD policy is backfiring—big time. Just ask the Brits… Having spent years creating the inflation (QE1 to unlimited QE, Repo bailouts, massive money supply expansion, and an historical wealth transfer from an inflated, Fed-driven stock market), the Fed will be cleaning up its own inflation mess on the backs of the U.S. working class and its other global “allies” while blaming the CPI inflation on Putin, Covid and climate change. How’s that for rigged to fail ? But that’s just the beginning, and it’s not just about the USA. Engineering a Recession Powell Can’t Control By raising rates into what we all know is a recession , Powell, who delusionaly pretends to be Volcker re-born, wants to solve the inflation he helped create by engineering a demand-crippling recession which he thinks he can control, but can’t and won’t.

This option trade will earn a full profit if yields fall or stay constant.

The US equity market dropped to new local lows and below key support in late trading after Fedex reported a massive miss on profits and dropped its year-ahead-forecast, citing a marked deterioration in activity over the last quarter. Elsewhere, the US dollar rose, USDCNH traded well above 7.00 and US yields remained pinned near the cycle highs after a strong weekly jobless claims report but tepid August Retail Sales data. What is our trading focus? Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) US equities tried to tread water during the cash session yesterday but spilled lower and below the key local support (3,900 area in S&P 500 and 12,000 area in the Nasdaq 100) in late trading after Fedex reported a huge profit miss and dropped its forward revenue forecast (more below). The break below support sets the market on tilt on the quarterly “witching” day for index futures and options today. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSIU2) and China’s CSI300 (03188:xhkg) Hang Seng Index fell 1% in early trading on a weakening Chinese Yuan, USDCNH surging to as high as 7.0350, but pared some losses to be down around half a per cent after the stronger than expected prints of China’s August industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment.