Government bond yields have surged to multi-decade highs across the US, UK, Germany, and Japan. George Cole, head of European Rates Strategy for Goldman Sachs Research, says there is a range of factors behind the bond sell-off—from swelling fiscal deficits and borrowing tied to investment in artificial intelligence (AI) to resilient economic growth and an energy-price shock. In this episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, he also explains what could bring yields back down. Key takeaways: 1. Low volatility signals a fundamental move:  While global yields have been climbing, bond market volatility has been notably low. Cole says this makes it harder to dismiss the sell-off as technical noise and points instead to fundamentally driven factors. 2. Everyone is borrowing from the same pool of savings: Governments raising money for deficits and defense spending are now competing with companies borrowing heavily to fund AI buildouts, Cole says. With more borrowers chasing the same pool of global savings, rates get pushed up almost mechanically, regardless of what any single government does. 3. Bonds could become a better hedge:  Over the next few years, Cole says five-year bond yields could have more room to decline, making those securities a better hedge for portfolios. [00:00] Introduction [00:27] Global Bond Yields Surge [01:36] Drivers Behind Rising Yields [07:59] US Treasury Bond Buybacks [13:49] Fiscal Pressures on Rates [16:32] Historical Context for Yields [20:14] Outlook for Rates [23:30] Advice for Investors The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. ⁠ Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html © 2026 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved.

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