Hostilities with Iran are entering their second month, and the damage to financial markets and the economy is mounting. The Inside Economics team and colleague, Shandor Whitcher, take up the question of what it all means for the prospects of recession. Shandor tells us about his prescient random forest model of the probability of recession starting in the next year, and it’s not encouraging. Odds are still less than half, but not by much, and the direction of travel is disconcerting. Guest: Shandor Whitcher Participate in the weekly Survey of Business Confidence: https://www.economy.com/business-confidence/participate/ Email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com for more info about the Moody's Summit '26 Conference in San Diego © 2026 Moody’s Corporation and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. Go to www.moodys.com/pages/globaldisclaimer.aspx for complete legal terms and conditions governing use of Moody’s information made available in this video.

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